Maike Osborne

Maike Osborne (born Michael Osborne, 1982) is an Australian academic and scientist who serves as a professor of machine learning at University of Oxford in the Machine Learning Research Group in the Department of Engineering Science. In 2016 she co-founded Mind Foundry, an artificial intelligence company, along with fellow professor Stephen Roberts. == Education == She has a BEng in Mechanical Engineering and a BSc in both Pure Mathematics and Physics from the University of Western Australia. She has a PhD in Machine Learning from the University of Oxford. == Career == Osborne has contributed to over 100 publications, and her work has received over 24,000 citations with an h-index of 46 according to Google Scholar. and has acted as principal or co-investigator for £10.6M of research funding. Her career has focused in particular on Bayesian approaches to AI and machine learning, named after the famous British statistician Thomas Bayes. Osborne's work has contributed to Probabilistic numerics, with Osborne co-authoring the first textbook on the subject. In 2013, Osborne co-authored a paper alongside Swedish-German economist Carl Benedikt Frey called "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation?". The paper has received over 13,000 citations and extensive media coverage. In 2023 Osborne gave oral evidence to the UK House of Commons Science and Technology Committee on the subject of the "Governance of Artificial Intelligence". Her testimony received significant coverage around her warnings of the threat of "rogue AI". == Honors == She is also an Official Fellow of Exeter College, and St Peter's College, Oxford, a Fellow of the ELLIS society, and a Faculty Member of the Oxford-Man Institute of Quantitative Finance. She joined the Oxford Martin School as Lead Researcher on the Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and Employment in 2015. She is a Director of the EPSRC Centre for Doctoral Training in Autonomous Intelligent Machines and Systems.

Data event

A data event is a relevant state transition defined in an event schema. Typically, event schemata are described by pre- and post condition for a single or a set of data items. In contrast to ECA (Event condition action), which considers an event to be a signal, the data event not only refers to the change (signal), but describes specific state transitions, which are referred to in ECA as conditions. Considering data events as relevant data item state transitions allows defining complex event-reaction schemata for a database. Defining data event schemata for relational databases is limited to attribute and instance events. Object-oriented databases also support collection properties, which allows defining changes in collections as data events, too.

Averaged one-dependence estimators

Averaged one-dependence estimators (AODE) is a probabilistic classification learning technique. It was developed to address the attribute-independence problem of the popular naive Bayes classifier. It frequently develops substantially more accurate classifiers than naive Bayes at the cost of a modest increase in the amount of computation. == The AODE classifier == AODE seeks to estimate the probability of each class y given a specified set of features x1, ... xn, P(y | x1, ... xn). To do so it uses the formula P ^ ( y ∣ x 1 , … x n ) = ∑ i : 1 ≤ i ≤ n ∧ F ( x i ) ≥ m P ^ ( y , x i ) ∏ j = 1 n P ^ ( x j ∣ y , x i ) ∑ y ′ ∈ Y ∑ i : 1 ≤ i ≤ n ∧ F ( x i ) ≥ m P ^ ( y ′ , x i ) ∏ j = 1 n P ^ ( x j ∣ y ′ , x i ) {\displaystyle {\hat {P}}(y\mid x_{1},\ldots x_{n})={\frac {\sum _{i:1\leq i\leq n\wedge F(x_{i})\geq m}{\hat {P}}(y,x_{i})\prod _{j=1}^{n}{\hat {P}}(x_{j}\mid y,x_{i})}{\sum _{y^{\prime }\in Y}\sum _{i:1\leq i\leq n\wedge F(x_{i})\geq m}{\hat {P}}(y^{\prime },x_{i})\prod _{j=1}^{n}{\hat {P}}(x_{j}\mid y^{\prime },x_{i})}}} where P ^ ( ⋅ ) {\displaystyle {\hat {P}}(\cdot )} denotes an estimate of P ( ⋅ ) {\displaystyle P(\cdot )} , F ( ⋅ ) {\displaystyle F(\cdot )} is the frequency with which the argument appears in the sample data and m is a user specified minimum frequency with which a term must appear in order to be used in the outer summation. In recent practice m is usually set at 1. == Derivation of the AODE classifier == We seek to estimate P(y | x1, ... xn). By the definition of conditional probability P ( y ∣ x 1 , … x n ) = P ( y , x 1 , … x n ) P ( x 1 , … x n ) . {\displaystyle P(y\mid x_{1},\ldots x_{n})={\frac {P(y,x_{1},\ldots x_{n})}{P(x_{1},\ldots x_{n})}}.} For any 1 ≤ i ≤ n {\displaystyle 1\leq i\leq n} , P ( y , x 1 , … x n ) = P ( y , x i ) P ( x 1 , … x n ∣ y , x i ) . {\displaystyle P(y,x_{1},\ldots x_{n})=P(y,x_{i})P(x_{1},\ldots x_{n}\mid y,x_{i}).} Under an assumption that x1, ... xn are independent given y and xi, it follows that P ( y , x 1 , … x n ) = P ( y , x i ) ∏ j = 1 n P ( x j ∣ y , x i ) . {\displaystyle P(y,x_{1},\ldots x_{n})=P(y,x_{i})\prod _{j=1}^{n}P(x_{j}\mid y,x_{i}).} This formula defines a special form of One Dependence Estimator (ODE), a variant of the naive Bayes classifier that makes the above independence assumption that is weaker (and hence potentially less harmful) than the naive Bayes' independence assumption. In consequence, each ODE should create a less biased estimator than naive Bayes. However, because the base probability estimates are each conditioned by two variables rather than one, they are formed from less data (the training examples that satisfy both variables) and hence are likely to have more variance. AODE reduces this variance by averaging the estimates of all such ODEs. == Features of the AODE classifier == Like naive Bayes, AODE does not perform model selection and does not use tuneable parameters. As a result, it has low variance. It supports incremental learning whereby the classifier can be updated efficiently with information from new examples as they become available. It predicts class probabilities rather than simply predicting a single class, allowing the user to determine the confidence with which each classification can be made. Its probabilistic model can directly handle situations where some data are missing. AODE has computational complexity O ( l n 2 ) {\displaystyle O(ln^{2})} at training time and O ( k n 2 ) {\displaystyle O(kn^{2})} at classification time, where n is the number of features, l is the number of training examples and k is the number of classes. This makes it infeasible for application to high-dimensional data. However, within that limitation, it is linear with respect to the number of training examples and hence can efficiently process large numbers of training examples. == Implementations == The free Weka machine learning suite includes an implementation of AODE.

Blockmodeling linked networks

Blockmodeling linked networks is an approach in blockmodeling in analysing the linked networks. Such approach is based on the generalized multilevel blockmodeling approach. The main objective of this approach is to achieve clustering of the nodes from all involved sets, while at the same time using all available information. At the same time, all one-mode and two-node networks, that are connected, are blockmodeled, which results in obtaining only one clustering, using nodes from each sets. Each cluster ideally contains only nodes from one set, which also allows the modeling of the links among clusters from different sets (through two-mode networks). This approach was introduced by Aleš Žiberna in 2014. Blockmodeling linked networks can be done using: separate analysis: blockmodeling each level separately; conversion approach: converting all one-mode networks to the same level and joining with two-mode networks; a true multilevel approach: one-mode and two-mode networks are blockmodeled at the same time, resulting in one clustering for nodes from each level.

Abess

abess (Adaptive Best Subset Selection, also ABESS) is a machine learning method designed to address the problem of best subset selection. It aims to determine which features or variables are crucial for optimal model performance when provided with a dataset and a prediction task. abess was introduced by Zhu in 2020 and it dynamically selects the appropriate model size adaptively, eliminating the need for selecting regularization parameters. abess is applicable in various statistical and machine learning tasks, including linear regression, the Single-index model, and other common predictive models. abess can also be applied in biostatistics. == Basic Form == The basic form of abess is employed to address the optimal subset selection problem in general linear regression. abess is an l 0 {\displaystyle l_{0}} method, it is characterized by its polynomial time complexity and the property of providing both unbiased and consistent estimates. In the context of linear regression, assuming we have knowledge of n {\displaystyle n} independent samples ( x i , y i ) , i = 1 , … , n {\displaystyle (x_{i},y_{i}),i=1,\ldots ,n} , where x i ∈ R p × 1 {\displaystyle x_{i}\in \mathbb {R} ^{p\times 1}} and y i ∈ R {\displaystyle y_{i}\in \mathbb {R} } , we define X = ( x 1 , … , x n ) ⊤ {\displaystyle X=(x_{1},\ldots ,x_{n})^{\top }} and y = ( y 1 , … , y n ) ⊤ {\displaystyle y=(y_{1},\ldots ,y_{n})^{\top }} . The following equation represents the general linear regression model: y = X β + ε . {\displaystyle y=X\beta +\varepsilon .} To obtain appropriate parameters β {\displaystyle \beta } , one can consider the loss function for linear regression: L n LR ( β ; X , y ) = 1 2 n ‖ y − X β ‖ 2 2 . {\displaystyle {\mathcal {L}}_{n}^{\text{LR}}(\beta ;X,y)={\frac {1}{2n}}\|y-X\beta \|_{2}^{2}.} In abess, the initial focus is on optimizing the loss function under the l 0 {\displaystyle l_{0}} constraint. That is, we consider the following problem: min β ∈ R p × 1 L n LR ( β ; X , y ) , subject to ‖ β ‖ 0 ≤ s , {\displaystyle \min _{\beta \in \mathbb {R} ^{p\times 1}}{\mathcal {L}}_{n}^{\text{LR}}(\beta ;X,y),{\text{ subject to }}\|\beta \|_{0}\leq s,} where s {\displaystyle s} represents the desired size of the support set, and ‖ β ‖ 0 = ∑ i = 1 p I ( β i ≠ 0 ) {\displaystyle \|\beta \|_{0}=\sum _{i=1}^{p}{\mathcal {I}}_{(\beta _{i}\neq 0)}} is the l 0 {\displaystyle l_{0}} norm of the vector. To address the optimization problem described above, abess iteratively exchanges an equal number of variables between the active set and the inactive set. In each iteration, the concept of sacrifice is introduced as follows: For j in the active set ( j ∈ A ^ {\displaystyle j\in {\hat {\mathcal {A}}}} ): ξ j = L n LR ( β ^ A ∖ { j } ) − L n LR ( β ^ A ) = X j ⊤ X j 2 n ( β ^ j ) 2 {\displaystyle \xi _{j}={\mathcal {L}}_{n}^{\text{LR}}\left({\hat {\boldsymbol {\beta }}}^{{\mathcal {A}}\backslash \{j\}}\right)-{\mathcal {L}}_{n}^{\text{LR}}\left({\hat {\boldsymbol {\beta }}}^{\mathcal {A}}\right)={\frac {{\boldsymbol {X}}_{j}^{\top }{\boldsymbol {X}}_{j}}{2n}}\left({\hat {\beta }}_{j}\right)^{2}} For j in the inactive set ( j ∉ A ^ {\displaystyle j\notin {\hat {\mathcal {A}}}} ): ξ j = L n LR ( β ^ A ) − L n LR ( β ^ A + t ^ { j } ) = X j ⊤ X j 2 n ( d ^ j X j ⊤ X j / n ) 2 {\displaystyle \xi _{j}={\mathcal {L}}_{n}^{\text{LR}}\left({\hat {\boldsymbol {\beta }}}^{\mathcal {A}}\right)-{\mathcal {L}}_{n}^{\text{LR}}\left({\hat {\boldsymbol {\beta }}}^{\mathcal {A}}+{\hat {\boldsymbol {t}}}^{\{j\}}\right)={\frac {{\boldsymbol {X}}_{j}^{\top }{\boldsymbol {X}}_{j}}{2n}}\left({\frac {{\hat {\mathrm {d} }}_{j}}{{\boldsymbol {X}}_{j}^{\top }{\boldsymbol {X}}_{j}/n}}\right)^{2}} Here are the key elements in the above equations: β ^ A {\displaystyle {\hat {\beta }}^{\mathcal {A}}} : This represents the estimate of β {\displaystyle \beta } obtained in the previous iteration. A ^ {\displaystyle {\hat {\mathcal {A}}}} : It denotes the estimated active set from the previous iteration. β ^ A ∖ { j } {\displaystyle {\hat {\boldsymbol {\beta }}}^{{\mathcal {A}}\backslash \{j\}}} : This is a vector where the j-th element is set to 0, while the other elements are the same as β ^ A {\displaystyle {\hat {\beta }}^{\mathcal {A}}} . t ^ { j } = arg ⁡ min t L n LR ( β ^ A + t { j } ) {\displaystyle {\hat {\boldsymbol {t}}}^{\{j\}}=\arg \min _{t}{\mathcal {L}}_{n}^{\text{LR}}\left({\hat {\boldsymbol {\beta }}}^{\mathcal {A}}+{\boldsymbol {t}}^{\{j\}}\right)} : Here, t { j } {\displaystyle t^{\{j\}}} represents a vector where all elements are 0 except the j-th element. d ^ j = X j ⊤ ( y − X β ^ ) / n {\displaystyle {\hat {d}}_{j}={\boldsymbol {X}}_{j}^{\top }({\boldsymbol {y}}-{\boldsymbol {X}}{\hat {\boldsymbol {\beta }}})/n} : This is calculated based on the equation mentioned. The iterative process involves exchanging variables, with the aim of minimizing the sacrifices in the active set while maximizing the sacrifices in the inactive set during each iteration. This approach allows abess to efficiently search for the optimal feature subset. In abess, select an appropriate s max {\displaystyle s_{\max }} and optimize the above problem for active sets size s = 1 , … , s max {\displaystyle s=1,\ldots ,s_{\max }} using the information criterion GIC = n log ⁡ L n LR + s log ⁡ p log ⁡ log ⁡ n , {\displaystyle {\text{GIC}}=n\log {\mathcal {L}}_{n}^{\text{LR}}+s\log p\log \log n,} to adaptively choose the appropriate active set size s {\displaystyle s} and obtain its corresponding abess estimator. == Generalizations == The splicing algorithm in abess can be employed for subset selection in other models. === Distribution-Free Location-Scale Regression === In 2023, Siegfried extends abess to the case of Distribution-Free and Location-Scale. Specifically, it considers the optimization problem max ϑ ∈ R P , β ∈ R J , γ ∈ R J ∑ i = 1 N ℓ i ( ϑ , x i ⊤ β , exp ⁡ ( x i ⊤ γ ) − 1 ) , {\displaystyle \max _{{\boldsymbol {\vartheta }}\in \mathbb {R} ^{P},{\boldsymbol {\beta }}\in \mathbb {R} ^{J},{\boldsymbol {\gamma }}\in \mathbb {R} ^{J}}\sum _{i=1}^{N}\ell _{i}\left({\boldsymbol {\vartheta }},{\boldsymbol {x}}_{i}^{\top }{\boldsymbol {\beta }},{\sqrt {\exp \left({\boldsymbol {x}}_{i}^{\top }{\boldsymbol {\gamma }}\right)}}^{-1}\right),} subject to ‖ ( β ⊤ , γ ⊤ ) ⊤ ‖ 0 ≤ s , {\displaystyle \left\|\left({\boldsymbol {\beta }}^{\top },{\boldsymbol {\gamma }}^{\top }\right)^{\top }\right\|_{0}\leq s,} where ℓ i {\displaystyle \ell _{i}} is a loss function, ϑ {\displaystyle {\boldsymbol {\vartheta }}} is a parameter vector, β {\displaystyle {\boldsymbol {\beta }}} and γ {\displaystyle {\boldsymbol {\gamma }}} are vectors, and x i {\displaystyle {\boldsymbol {x}}_{i}} is a data vector. This approach, demonstrated across various applications, enables parsimonious regression modeling for arbitrary outcomes while maintaining interpretability through innovative subset selection procedures. === Groups Selection === In 2023, Zhang applied the splicing algorithm to group selection, optimizing the following model: min β ∈ R p L n LR ( β ; X , y ) subject to ∑ j = 1 J I ( ‖ β G j ‖ 2 ≠ 0 ) ≤ s {\displaystyle \min _{{\boldsymbol {\beta }}\in \mathbb {R} ^{p}}{\mathcal {L}}_{n}^{\text{LR}}(\beta ;X,y){\text{ subject to }}\sum _{j=1}^{J}I\left(\|{\boldsymbol {\beta }}_{G_{j}}\|_{2}\neq 0\right)\leq s} Here are the symbols involved: J {\displaystyle J} : Total number of feature groups, representing the existence of J {\displaystyle J} non-overlapping feature groups in the dataset. G j {\displaystyle G_{j}} : Index set for the j {\displaystyle j} -th feature group, where j {\displaystyle j} ranges from 1 to J {\displaystyle J} , representing the feature grouping structure in the data. s {\displaystyle s} : Model size, a positive integer determined from the data, limiting the number of selected feature groups. === Regression with Corrupted Data === Zhang applied the splicing algorithm to handle corrupted data. Corrupted data refers to information that has been disrupted or contains errors during the data collection or recording process. This interference may include sensor inaccuracies, recording errors, communication issues, or other external disturbances, leading to inaccurate or distorted observations within the dataset. === Single Index Models === In 2023, Tang applied the splicing algorithm to optimal subset selection in the Single-index model. The form of the Single Index Model (SIM) is given by y i = g ( b ⊤ x i , e i ) , i = 1 , … , n , {\displaystyle y_{i}=g({\boldsymbol {b}}^{\top }{\boldsymbol {x}}_{i},e_{i}),\quad i=1,\ldots ,n,} where b {\displaystyle {\boldsymbol {b}}} is the parameter vector, e i {\displaystyle e_{i}} is the error term. The corresponding loss function is defined as l n ( β ) = ∑ i = 1 n ( r i n − 1 2 − x i ⊤ β ) 2 , {\displaystyle l_{n}({\boldsymbol {\beta }})=\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left({\frac {r_{i}}{n}}-{\frac {1}{2}}-{\boldsymbol {x}}_{i}^{\top }{\boldsymbol {\beta }}\right)^{2},} where r {\disp

Local Economic Assessment Package

The Local Economic Assessment Package (also known as “EDR-LEAP” or “LEAP Model”) is a web-based, interactive database and software tool used by local and regional agencies in the US to improve strategies for economic development. It provides local economic performance measures, and benchmarks for comparison of economic development factors against competing regions. It works by incorporating elements of economic base analysis as well as gap analysis and business cluster analysis to identify needs for improvement and paths for economic growth. The LEAP Model was originally developed for the Appalachian Regional Commission. Its theory and applications are discussed in peer-reviewed journal articles.

Algorithmic learning theory

Algorithmic learning theory is a mathematical framework for analyzing machine learning problems and algorithms. Synonyms include formal learning theory and algorithmic inductive inference. Algorithmic learning theory is different from statistical learning theory in that it does not make use of statistical assumptions and analysis. Both algorithmic and statistical learning theory are concerned with machine learning and can thus be viewed as branches of computational learning theory. == Distinguishing characteristics == Unlike statistical learning theory and most statistical theory in general, algorithmic learning theory does not assume that data are random samples, that is, that data points are independent of each other. This makes the theory suitable for domains where observations are (relatively) noise-free but not random, such as language learning and automated scientific discovery. The fundamental concept of algorithmic learning theory is learning in the limit: as the number of data points increases, a learning algorithm should converge to a correct hypothesis on every possible data sequence consistent with the problem space. This is a non-probabilistic version of statistical consistency, which also requires convergence to a correct model in the limit, but allows a learner to fail on data sequences with probability measure 0 . Algorithmic learning theory investigates the learning power of Turing machines. Other frameworks consider a much more restricted class of learning algorithms than Turing machines, for example, learners that compute hypotheses more quickly, for instance in polynomial time. An example of such a framework is probably approximately correct learning . == Learning in the limit == The concept was introduced in E. Mark Gold's seminal paper "Language identification in the limit". The objective of language identification is for a machine running one program to be capable of developing another program by which any given sentence can be tested to determine whether it is "grammatical" or "ungrammatical". The language being learned need not be English or any other natural language - in fact the definition of "grammatical" can be absolutely anything known to the tester. In Gold's learning model, the tester gives the learner an example sentence at each step, and the learner responds with a hypothesis, which is a suggested program to determine grammatical correctness. It is required of the tester that every possible sentence (grammatical or not) appears in the list eventually, but no particular order is required. It is required of the learner that at each step the hypothesis must be correct for all the sentences so far. A particular learner is said to be able to "learn a language in the limit" if there is a certain number of steps beyond which its hypothesis no longer changes. At this point it has indeed learned the language, because every possible sentence appears somewhere in the sequence of inputs (past or future), and the hypothesis is correct for all inputs (past or future), so the hypothesis is correct for every sentence. The learner is not required to be able to tell when it has reached a correct hypothesis, all that is required is that it be true. Gold showed that any language which is defined by a Turing machine program can be learned in the limit by another Turing-complete machine using enumeration. This is done by the learner testing all possible Turing machine programs in turn until one is found which is correct so far - this forms the hypothesis for the current step. Eventually, the correct program will be reached, after which the hypothesis will never change again (but note that the learner does not know that it won't need to change). Gold also showed that if the learner is given only positive examples (that is, only grammatical sentences appear in the input, not ungrammatical sentences), then the language can only be guaranteed to be learned in the limit if there are only a finite number of possible sentences in the language (this is possible if, for example, sentences are known to be of limited length). Language identification in the limit is a highly abstract model. It does not allow for limits of runtime or computer memory which can occur in practice, and the enumeration method may fail if there are errors in the input. However the framework is very powerful, because if these strict conditions are maintained, it allows the learning of any program known to be computable. This is because a Turing machine program can be written to mimic any program in any conventional programming language. See Church-Turing thesis. == Other identification criteria == Learning theorists have investigated other learning criteria, such as the following. Efficiency: minimizing the number of data points required before convergence to a correct hypothesis. Mind Changes: minimizing the number of hypothesis changes that occur before convergence. Mind change bounds are closely related to mistake bounds that are studied in statistical learning theory. Kevin Kelly has suggested that minimizing mind changes is closely related to choosing maximally simple hypotheses in the sense of Occam’s Razor. == Annual conference == Since 1990, there is an International Conference on Algorithmic Learning Theory (ALT), called Workshop in its first years (1990–1997). Between 1992 and 2016, proceedings were published in the LNCS series. Starting from 2017, they are published by the Proceedings of Machine Learning Research. The 34th conference will be held in Singapore in Feb 2023. The topics of the conference cover all of theoretical machine learning, including statistical and computational learning theory, online learning, active learning, reinforcement learning, and deep learning.